From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on inbox.vuxu.org X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-0.8 required=5.0 tests=DKIM_INVALID,DKIM_SIGNED, MAILING_LIST_MULTI autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 Received: (qmail 12283 invoked from network); 22 Jan 2023 05:23:50 -0000 Received: from minnie.tuhs.org (50.116.15.146) by inbox.vuxu.org with ESMTPUTF8; 22 Jan 2023 05:23:50 -0000 Received: from minnie.tuhs.org (localhost [IPv6:::1]) by minnie.tuhs.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id CC16042568; Sun, 22 Jan 2023 15:23:37 +1000 (AEST) Received: from sasl.smtp.pobox.com (pb-sasl21.pobox.com [173.228.157.49]) by minnie.tuhs.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 7C17742567 for ; Sun, 22 Jan 2023 15:23:23 +1000 (AEST) Received: from sasl.smtp.pobox.com (unknown [127.0.0.1]) by pb-sasl21.pobox.com (Postfix) with ESMTP id AF8B4DA1F1; Sun, 22 Jan 2023 00:23:19 -0500 (EST) (envelope-from davida@pobox.com) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed; d=pobox.com; h= content-type:mime-version:subject:from:in-reply-to:date:cc :content-transfer-encoding:message-id:references:to; s=sasl; bh= FvJJE4qEFnCPwzhA7T0iXzwsAAXzJCtbfV2BI38mRA8=; b=jYrZvfIcp+x5romY SZnSPNuRt8Hhvy/0n8WPSxyMZnblEyluCQ+2sm6ReH2ZNJZKiaczE64xnZP/Nysw AkHBq5YcKcFgXoEvK3UJJ4WBq02NV4M922OZ+0c3gV6H/wKE5yWOIDkyVonaQGfj /Op+fRms070MjQJZGTRby1jkLxc= Received: from pb-sasl21.sea.icgroup.com (unknown [127.0.0.1]) by pb-sasl21.pobox.com (Postfix) with ESMTP id 9ACDBDA1ED; Sun, 22 Jan 2023 00:23:19 -0500 (EST) (envelope-from davida@pobox.com) Received: from [192.168.86.129] (unknown [49.186.3.17]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by pb-sasl21.pobox.com (Postfix) with ESMTPSA id C21AFDA1E9; Sun, 22 Jan 2023 00:23:15 -0500 (EST) (envelope-from davida@pobox.com) Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Mime-Version: 1.0 (Mac OS X Mail 12.4 \(3445.104.21\)) From: David Arnold In-Reply-To: <396750c7-6fc8-9b15-5e68-9f569718ba2e@makerlisp.com> Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2023 16:23:09 +1100 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message-Id: References: <202301180943.30I9hrOw030485@freefriends.org> <202301181513.30IFDDUJ015224@freefriends.org> <20230118151446.GD2964@mcvoy.com> <202301190802.30J82KwQ025718@freefriends.org> <20230119150434.GA626@mcvoy.com> <7cc2b7c5-5e98-9299-4fa8-a477fbf4ff77@makerlisp.com> <75cfc721-a662-ddea-1188-767462d747ae@makerlisp.com> <202301211812.30LICtSl021234@freefriends.org> <396750c7-6fc8-9b15-5e68-9f569718ba2e@makerlisp.com> To: Luther Johnson X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.3445.104.21) X-Pobox-Relay-ID: E021A9A2-9A14-11ED-B35E-A2D45065221D-29049682!pb-sasl21.pobox.com Message-ID-Hash: O6CLQGZBGXJRR7LF5XENWVCICIUWGZGY X-Message-ID-Hash: O6CLQGZBGXJRR7LF5XENWVCICIUWGZGY X-MailFrom: davida@pobox.com X-Mailman-Rule-Misses: dmarc-mitigation; no-senders; approved; emergency; loop; banned-address; member-moderation; nonmember-moderation; administrivia; implicit-dest; max-recipients; max-size; news-moderation; no-subject; digests; suspicious-header CC: Aharon Robbins , John Cowan , segaloco via COFF X-Mailman-Version: 3.3.6b1 Precedence: list Subject: [COFF] Re: [TUHS] The era of general purpose computing (Re: AIX moved into maintainance mode (COFFed) List-Id: Computer Old Farts Forum Archived-At: List-Archive: List-Help: List-Owner: List-Post: List-Subscribe: List-Unsubscribe: (Move to COFF) > On 22 Jan 2023, at 05:43, Luther Johnson wrote: >=20 > Yes, I know, but some of that SW development is being automated ... = I'm not saying it will totally go away, but the numbers will become = smaller, and the number of people who know how to do it will become = smaller, and the quality will continue to deteriorate. The number of = people who can detect quality problems before the failures they cause, = will also get smaller. Not extinct, but endangered, and we are all = endangered by the quality problems. Is it possible that this concern mirrors that of skilled programmers = seeing the introduction of high-level languages? I=E2=80=99ve played with ChatGPT, and the first 10 minutes were a bit = confronting. But the remainder of the hour or so I played overcame my = initial concerns. It=E2=80=99s amazing what can be done, especially with Javascript or = Python, when you ask for something that=E2=80=99s fairly simple to = define, and in a common application area. You can get reasonable code, = refine it, ask for an altered approach, etc. It=E2=80=99s probably = quicker than writing it yourself, especially if you=E2=80=99re not = intimately familiar with the library being used (or even the language). But =E2=80=A6 it pretty quickly becomes clear that there=E2=80=99s no = semantic understanding of what=E2=80=99s being done behind it. And = unless you specify what you want in pretty minute detail, the output is = unlikely to be what you want. And, as always, going from a roughed-out = implementation of the core functionality to a production-ready program = is a lot of work. In the end, it=E2=80=99s like having an intern with a bit of experience, = Stack Overflow, and a decent aptitude driving the keyboard: you still = have to break down the spec into small, detailed chunks, and while = sometimes they come back with the right thing, more often, you need to = walk through it line by line to correct the little mistakes. I=E2=80=99m looking forward to seeing a generative model combined with = static analysis, incremental compilation, unit test output: I think it = will be possible for a good programmer to multiply their productivity by = a few times (maybe even 10x, but I don=E2=80=99t see 100x). There=E2=80=99= ll still be times when it=E2=80=99s simpler to just write the code = yourself, rather than trying to rephrase the request. All of which makes me think of the assembly language to high-level = language transition ... d=