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From: Kai.Grossjohann@CS.Uni-Dortmund.DE (Kai =?iso-8859-1?q?Gro=DFjohann?=)
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Subject: Re: `user-mail-address' for message-ids
Date: 28 Feb 2001 16:31:32 +0100
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In-Reply-To: <vafofvnohqx.fsf@lucy.cs.uni-dortmund.de> (Kai.Grossjohann@CS.Uni-Dortmund.DE's message of "27 Feb 2001 23:58:46 +0100")
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On 27 Feb 2001, Kai Gro=DFjohann wrote:

> The chance of two people having the same birthday is one in 365.
> The chance of any two people in three having the same birthday is 3
> in 365 (one in 365 for Peter and Paul, 1/365 for Paul and John, and
> 1/365 for Peter and John).

This is bogus.  Hm.  The probability of Peter and Paul having a
different birthday is 364/365, same for Paul and John, and same for
Peter and John.  The probability for no clash is that Peter and Paul
have a different birthday, and Paul and John, and Peter and John, so
the probability for no clash is 364/365 * 364/365 * 364/365 =3D
(364^3)/(365^3).  So the probability for a clash is 1 -
(364^3)/(365^3) =3D 0.008 =3D .8%.

kai
--=20
Be indiscrete.  Do it continuously.