From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.4.4 (2020-01-24) on inbox.vuxu.org X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.1 required=5.0 tests=DKIM_SIGNED,DKIM_VALID, DKIM_VALID_AU,FREEMAIL_FROM,HTML_MESSAGE,MAILING_LIST_MULTI, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_NONE autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no version=3.4.4 Received: (qmail 3958 invoked from network); 10 Jul 2021 13:55:54 -0000 Received: from minnie.tuhs.org (45.79.103.53) by inbox.vuxu.org with ESMTPUTF8; 10 Jul 2021 13:55:54 -0000 Received: by minnie.tuhs.org (Postfix, from userid 112) id 6297F93DA6; Sat, 10 Jul 2021 23:55:53 +1000 (AEST) Received: from minnie.tuhs.org (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by minnie.tuhs.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 341DD93D85; Sat, 10 Jul 2021 23:54:46 +1000 (AEST) Authentication-Results: minnie.tuhs.org; dkim=pass (2048-bit key; unprotected) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="uR/SfI9v"; dkim-atps=neutral Received: by minnie.tuhs.org (Postfix, from userid 112) id 9FC6193D85; Sat, 10 Jul 2021 23:54:42 +1000 (AEST) Received: from mail-pj1-f52.google.com (mail-pj1-f52.google.com [209.85.216.52]) by minnie.tuhs.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id C488493D3C for ; Sat, 10 Jul 2021 23:54:41 +1000 (AEST) Received: by mail-pj1-f52.google.com with SMTP id l11so7325478pji.5 for ; Sat, 10 Jul 2021 06:54:41 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20161025; h=mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date:message-id:subject:to :cc; bh=9lBtH5sJ9fE6idZXtBpnhfI0TZ4gXOKLwauTdjg8GGM=; b=uR/SfI9vrSCPPX+trqwkyudo93CnNcJFh7yYNLtHU1hMLwzHYYefsuBe9Sazv6yiN4 WJzMhnz8FY/ixKr79js7rvP1e1WxORGGaRgtJu2nERNFPhPXx5O49DPl/ojHmBeXQN0V ysz5Z0VY2JcSf2h4GrIHuwjGvKD/ftrGA9ZHgVUM9N/Vn+CadXcgu81cjTowJv/7yE0+ 4yR5GRPJZ88nC+diROnC81dRMy1ugzUfJ9xa3g+MgAIgrfw1/mDFYewLAaCI4qb57p9+ 4mHPp/FmadNucr+kHuRDW4Ma8SA8D0nLuO/PUvlbyDkEW6G+tMBJa1hRMULgYR9k4t70 vqUw== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20161025; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date :message-id:subject:to:cc; bh=9lBtH5sJ9fE6idZXtBpnhfI0TZ4gXOKLwauTdjg8GGM=; b=qLbi/oug20LGw8RLFqGETa3RE3HL8TH6cZG6ZG+YPQ72omiJIqeKQ1D7a30tFj8cvJ OhH1HHaktFzX/AkpmVyib1wOD+XgrIzInnAt9nHztoIO3ixfAIGiMNUC0Z7Cl5DLRUgW XBwTLzt3glzJrLn0320Y3kxugSH47ddB95kJDnfUJqunuMo7ESdQwF3uUlFgla4R2llY JG2ddeQ5pwQc3LLkFK+lK60419lJkqTFBxzd8T1GkhUeQFMakfBDqeG155D67F6e/9lg ARmKNC3g9pSTX3DBo1t87rtYJCXLKjPOj3pnZlECrAo9k7AL0ZQFSoGzQXx0ZPTkT0Uv AyJw== X-Gm-Message-State: AOAM530fsxb96imozdjcw26Gtt854wu6zPT5Col6z7zIWZNPcLbmgCzT jgs6eNJk6LD/dvpLFQsHDNY27qqoASLH/aO1tI7VnpP1DxQ= X-Google-Smtp-Source: ABdhPJxWwqlx600LNul1tdadpbolfdaTYarn7gwHu6l/hp5ZCGI1Gm9xq7O2ywNcgpnIoH/Q0f7zf9eWx1yXA2sgPmY= X-Received: by 2002:a17:902:6b47:b029:129:ab4e:6407 with SMTP id g7-20020a1709026b47b0290129ab4e6407mr21692412plt.20.1625925281119; Sat, 10 Jul 2021 06:54:41 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <06737C14-1122-4832-BCAA-A37B242F69E4@me.com> <202107071828.167ISgdN2686558@darkstar.fourwinds.com> <20210710115135.22FDC21C4E@orac.inputplus.co.uk> In-Reply-To: <20210710115135.22FDC21C4E@orac.inputplus.co.uk> From: Henry Bent Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2021 09:54:28 -0400 Message-ID: To: Ralph Corderoy Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000cfffcb05c6c53ad2" Subject: Re: [TUHS] The Unix shell: a 50-year view X-BeenThere: tuhs@minnie.tuhs.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.26 Precedence: list List-Id: The Unix Heritage Society mailing list List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , Cc: The Unix Heritage Society mailing list Errors-To: tuhs-bounces@minnie.tuhs.org Sender: "TUHS" --000000000000cfffcb05c6c53ad2 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I'm going to come right out ahead of any path to the contrary and say that I'm in favor of the lockdowns that were enacted in the US. I very plainly do not trust the population here to make reasonable decisions, even in the face of clearly presented evidence to the contrary. Furthermore, I have not seen any evidence that US lawmakers acted according to any model whatsoever. The evidence being what it is, I applaud UK lawmakers for acting as they did, and our hindsight evidence can only support increased funding for statistical modeling. It wasn't a widely regarded field before this and I can only hope that its support improves after this. -Henry On Sat, 10 Jul 2021 at 08:02, Ralph Corderoy wrote: > Hi, > > Jon Steinhart wrote: > > In lectures these days, I'm asking the question "We haven't managed to > > off more than a thousand or so people at a time with a software bug > > yet so what's going to be software's Union Carbide Bhopal moment?" > > If buggy code rather than a single bug counts then the software model > written over fifteen years by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London, > which has been instrumental in poor UK Government policy decisions on > COVID-19 has easily topped more than a thousand deaths in the net tally. > > It was a single 15,000-line file of C, written by a non-programmer. > Eventually, ic.ac.uk released a C++ version which had been worked on by > Microsoft and other volunteers for a month so it could face the public. > > =E2=80=98For me the code is not a mess, but it=E2=80=99s all in my hea= d, completely > undocumented. Nobody would be able to use it... and I don=E2=80=99t = have > the bandwidth to support individual users.=E2=80=99 =E2=80=95 Neil Fe= rguson. > > Politician Steve Baker MP, a former senior programmer, has been critical > of the public version and commissioned a review by Mike Hearn. A path > to Hearn's paper starts at > https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323897771510943745.html > > And another coder critique is at > https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/ > > The numbers from Ferguson's original pre-release C program were > presented by him to Number 10 and were instrumental in setting the UK on > the path of lockdowns. =E2=80=98...lockdowns are the single worst public= health > mistake in the last 100 years=E2=80=99 =E2=80=95 Jay Bhattacharya, profes= sor of medicine > at Stanford University. > > -- > Cheers, Ralph. > --000000000000cfffcb05c6c53ad2 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I'm going to come right out ahead of any path to = the contrary and say that I'm in favor of the lockdowns that were enact= ed in the US.=C2=A0 I very plainly do not trust the population here to make= reasonable decisions, even in the face of clearly presented evidence to th= e contrary.=C2=A0 Furthermore, I have not seen any evidence that US lawmake= rs acted according to any model whatsoever.

The ev= idence being what it is, I applaud UK lawmakers for acting as they did, and= our hindsight evidence can only support increased funding for statistical = modeling.=C2=A0 It wasn't a widely regarded field before this and I can= only hope that its support improves after this.

-= Henry

On Sat, 10 Jul 2021 at 08:02, Ralph Corderoy <ralph@inputplus.co.uk> wrote:
Hi,

Jon Steinhart wrote:
> In lectures these days, I'm asking the question "We haven'= ;t managed to
> off more than a thousand or so people at a time with a software bug > yet so what's going to be software's Union Carbide Bhopal mome= nt?"

If buggy code rather than a single bug counts then the software model
written over fifteen years by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London, which has been instrumental in poor UK Government policy decisions on
COVID-19 has easily topped more than a thousand deaths in the net tally.
It was a single 15,000-line file of C, written by a non-programmer.
Eventually, ic.ac.uk released a C++ version which had been worked on by
Microsoft and other volunteers for a month so it could face the public.

=C2=A0 =C2=A0=E2=80=98For me the code is not a mess, but it=E2=80=99s all i= n my head, completely
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 undocumented.=C2=A0 Nobody would be able to use it... and I d= on=E2=80=99t have
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 the bandwidth to support individual users.=E2=80=99 =E2=80=95= Neil Ferguson.

Politician Steve Baker MP, a former senior programmer, has been critical of the public version and commissioned a review by Mike Hearn.=C2=A0 A path=
to Hearn's paper starts at
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/132389= 7771510943745.html

And another coder critique is at
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review= -of-fergusons-model/

The numbers from Ferguson's original pre-release C program were
presented by him to Number=C2=A010 and were instrumental in setting the UK = on
the path of lockdowns.=C2=A0 =E2=80=98...lockdowns are the single worst pub= lic health
mistake in the last 100 years=E2=80=99 =E2=80=95 Jay Bhattacharya, professo= r of medicine
at Stanford University.

--
Cheers, Ralph.
--000000000000cfffcb05c6c53ad2--