From: tfb@tfeb.org (Tim Bradshaw)
Subject: [TUHS] Questions for TUHS great minds
Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2017 13:09:13 +0000 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <512ABFFE-C238-45CA-9C43-CF9A84E4DE49@tfeb.org> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <99f1301695eb38762765b91bff57b0486bc71af6@webmail.yaccman.com>
On 11 Jan 2017, at 18:34, Steve Johnson <scj at yaccman.com> wrote:
>
> IMHO, hardware has left software in the dust. I figured out that if cars had evolved since 1970 at the same rate as computer memory, we could now buy 1,000 Tesla Model S's for a penny, and each would have a top speed of 60,000 MPH. This is roughly a factor of a trillion in less than 50 years.
This doesn't mean that the process will continue: eventually you hit physics limits ('engineering' is really a better term, but it has been so degraded by 'software engineering' that I don't like to use it). Obviously we've already hit those limits for clock speed (when?) and we might be close to them for single-threaded performance in general: the current big (HPC big) machine where I work has both lower clock speed than the previous one and observed lower single-threaded performance as well, although its a lot more scalable, at least in theory. The previous one was POWER, and was I think the slightly mad very-high-clock-speed POWER chip, which might turn out to be the high-water-mark of single-threaded performance; the current one is x86.
Obviously for a while parallel scaling will mean things continue, but that crashes into other limits as well.
I think we've all lived in a wonderful time where it seemed like various exponential processes could continue for ever: they can't.
--tim
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next prev parent reply other threads:[~2017-01-17 13:09 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 13+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2017-01-11 2:33 Robert Swierczek
2017-01-11 16:25 ` Ron Natalie
2017-01-11 16:50 ` Jacob Goense
2017-01-11 17:01 ` Corey Lindsly
2017-01-11 17:54 ` Marc Rochkind
2017-01-11 20:32 ` Jacob Goense
2017-01-11 18:34 ` Steve Johnson
2017-01-11 19:46 ` Steffen Nurpmeso
2017-01-17 13:09 ` Tim Bradshaw [this message]
2017-01-17 13:36 ` Michael Kjörling
2017-01-17 19:55 ` Steve Johnson
2017-02-01 23:32 ` Erik E. Fair
2017-01-17 14:27 Nelson H. F. Beebe
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