Re: [9fans] thoughs about venti+fossil

["Bruce Ellis" <bruce.ellis@gmail.com>]

If you stopped to pick up the penny you'd get hit by lightning and
fail to cash in your lottery ticket while getting bitten by a moose!

brucee

On Fri, Mar 7, 2008 at 6:45 AM, Paul Lalonde <plalonde@telus.net> wrote:
> You don't have to care about the chance of a collision.  Work out the
> expected value of the collision by estimating the maximum that might
> cost you.  I'll go nuts, and claim that a collision will cost *one
> BILLION* dollars.
> Not checking for a collision, assuming a 2**-90 collision rate (which is
> a huge over-estimate, but that I've seen bandied about here), you wind
> up with an expected dollar cost of 2**-60 dollars on that collision.
>
> I don't pick up pennies in the street.  I certainly won't dedicate any
> more brainpower to this silliness.
>
> Paul
>
> Enrico Weigelt wrote:
> > * Bruce Ellis <bruce.ellis@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> it's even sillier, if everyone bought 1,000,000 times as many tickets
> >> guess how that would change the probabilities. not at all!
> >>
> >
> > The main problem is: statistics is not reliable. You just can
> > guess how many times approx. something will happen if you take
> > a really large number of tries. You can never be sure for a
> > single case.
> >
> >
> > cu
> >
>
>